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  • Description:
  • more than twice as many strokes were predicted than actually occurred (161 vs 71). Moreover, this lack of accuracy was not uniform across levels of risk. In the high-risk group, the model predicted almost 3 times the number of observed strokes (141 vs 50, respectively). In the low-risk group, the model predicted fewer strokes than occurred (8 vs 13, respectively). As a result of the unreliable predictions produced by the model from 1994, we developed a logistic regression model applying the same 5 risk factors to the current population. Two of the variables (presence of carotid bruit and history of diabetes) were no longer significant. Thus, a simpler model, using only 3 variables (age, history of previous stroke, and history of hypertension), was developed. Table 3 presents the odds ratios, significance levels, and confidence intervals for the 3 risk factors in this new model. With this simpler model, the risk of stroke for an individual is indicated in Figure 2.
  • License:
  • Rights Managed
  • Rights Holder:
  • JAMA
  • License Rights Holder:
  • Copyright 2002 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved. Applicable FARS/DFARS Restrictions Apply to Government Use.
  • Asset Type:
  • Image
  • Asset Subtype:
  • Figure
  • Image Orientation:
  • Landscape
  • Image Dimensions:
  • 590 x 182
  • Image File Size:
  • 10.7 KB
  • Creator:
  • Guy M. McKhann MD, Maura A. Grega MSN, Louis M. Borowicz, Jr MS, Michon Bechamps MHS, Ola A. Selnes PhD, William A. Baumgartner MD, Richard M. Royall PhD
  • Credit:
  • McKhann, G. M., Grega, M. A., Borowicz, Jr, L. M., Bechamps, M., Selnes, O. A., Baumgartner, W. A., & Royall, R. M. (2002). Encephalopathy and Stroke After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting. Arch Neurol, 59(9), 1422-1428. https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.59.9.1422.
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  • Property Release:
  • No
  • Model Release:
  • No
  • Purchasable:
  • Yes
  • Sensitive Materials:
  • No
  • Article Authors:
  • Guy M. McKhann MD, Maura A. Grega MSN, Louis M. Borowicz, Jr MS, Michon Bechamps MHS, Ola A. Selnes PhD, William A. Baumgartner MD, Richard M. Royall PhD
  • Article Copyright Year:
  • 2002
  • Publication Volume:
  • 59
  • Publication Issue:
  • 9
  • Publication Date:
  • 09/01/2002
  • DOI:
  • https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.59.9.1422

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